Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model

Abstract The extent of the challenges and opportunities that population ageing presents depends heavily on population’s health. Hence, for development appropriate strategies enable countries to adopt emerging demographic epidemiological realities, information future health trajectories elderly is a natural requirement. This study an innovative methodological framework projecting individuals using dynamic microsimulation model considers interactions between sociodemographic characteristics, health, mortality, bio-medical behavioral risk factors. developed, called ATHLOS-Mic, used project cohorts born before 1960 period 2015–2060 selected European Countries SHARE data illustrate possible effects some factors education trajectories. Results show that, driven by better educational attainment, each generation will be healthier than previous one at same age. Also, we see average, individual our base live about 18 more years since start projection period, but only 5 in good Finally, find scenario removes effect having low level has largest impact projected average number lived per person,